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Check out my new ‘Policy Note’ for the Washington Institute: “Wilayat al-Hawl: ‘Remaining’ and Incubating the Next Islamic State Generation”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Even before the United States precipitously withdrew its troops from northern Syria in October 2019, observers fretted over the situation at al-Hawl refugee camp. The camp is populated predominantly by women and children and has drawn attention for its unsanitary conditions, inadequate medical care, lack of education for children, and overcrowding. Added to this is a strong, although hard-to-quantify, strain of jihadism. Many inhabitants still profess loyalty to the Islamic State and have sought to impose a fundamentalist lifestyle on their fellow residents. In one especially grim incident, a woman is said to have killed her own granddaughter for removing her veil.

In this urgently important study, jihadism expert Aaron Zelin details the unsettling situation at al-Hawl, focusing on the period from the Islamic State’s relinquishment of territory in March 2019 until the recent U.S. pullout and ensuing Turkish incursion. As much as anything, the contents demonstrate a continued failure by international actors to manage the transition from fighting a jihadist group to rolling back its broader successes. Washington and its partners must take note.

Click here to read the full research paper (20 pages).

New issue of Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām’s newsletter: “Ibā’ #71″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior issues see: #70, #69, #68, #67, #66, #65, #64, #63, #62, #61, #60, #59, #58, #57, #56, #55, #54, #53, #52, #51, #50, #49, #48, #47, #46, #45, #44, #43, #42, #41, #40, #39, #38, #37, #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, #1, and #0.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām — Ibā’ Newsletter #71Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām — Ibā’ Newsletter #71

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To inquire about a translation for this newsletter issue for a fee email: [email protected]

Articles of the Week – 10/12-10/18

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Saturday October 12:

Iraq Confronts Its Own Prisoner’s Dilemma – Vera Mironova, Sam Whitt, Dara Tahseen Assi, Foreign Policy: https://bit.ly/2J4FY4G

Does Al Qaeda Have a Future? – Daniel Byman, The Washington Quarterly: https://bit.ly/2J4G8ZQ

Monday October 14:

Switching Sides: Exploring Violent Extremist Intergroup Migration Across Hostile Ideologies – Daniel Koehler, Political Psychology: bit.ly/2q5lO3U

Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism Implications for threat assessment and intelligence gathering – Caitlin Clemmow, Noémie Bouhana, and Paul Gill, Criminology & Public Policy: https://bit.ly/2MtbjQU

Describing Perceptions of Media Influence among Radicalized Individuals: The Case of Jihadists and Non-Violent Islamists – Philip Baugut and Katharina Neumann, Political Communication: https://bit.ly/2BnKZBp

Tuesday October 15:

The Islamic State in India’s Kerala: A primer – Kabir Taneja and Mohammed Sinan Siyech, Observer Research Center: https://bit.ly/2ox4Xa1

New figures on European nationals detained in Syria and Iraq – Rik Coolsaet and Thomas Renard, Egmont Institute: https://bit.ly/2MByiry

An investigation into microcycles of violence by the Taliban – Julie Haukland Rieber-Mohn and Kartikeya Tripathi, Security Journal: https://bit.ly/31r2lI5

Thursday October 17:

Women in Islamic State: From Caliphate to Camps – Gina Vale, The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague: https://bit.ly/2P0fGnW

Cows, Charcoal, and Cocaine: Al-Shabaab’s Criminal Activities in the Horn of Africa – Katharine Petrich, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism: https://bit.ly/2J2rD92

Crime-Terror Interactions in Sub-Saharan Africa – James J. F. Forest, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism: https://bit.ly/2MpTd21

#rebel: Rebel communication strategies in the age of social media – Cyanne E Loyle and Samuel E Bestvater, Conflict Management and Peace Science: https://bit.ly/2K13wb6

Friday October 18:

Wilayat al-Hawl: ‘Remaining’ and Incubating the Next Islamic State Generation – Aaron Y. Zelin, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://bit.ly/2MtA1R2

New issue of The Islamic State’s newsletter: “al-Nabā’ #204″

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

For prior parts see: #203, #202, #201, #200, #199, #198, #197, #196, #195, #194, #193, #192, #191, #190, #189, #188, #187, #186, #185, #184, #183, #182, #181, #180, #179, #178, #177, #176, #175, #174, #173, #172, #171, #170, #169, #168, #167, #166, #165, #164, #163, #162, #161, #160, #159, #158, #157, #156, #155, #154, #153, #152, #151, #150, #149, #148, #147, #146, #145, #144, #143, #142, #141, #140, #139, #138, #137, #136, #135, #134, #133, #132, #131, #130, #129, #128, #127, #126, #125, #124, #123, #122, #121, #120, #119, #118, #117, #116, #115, #114, #113, #112, #111, #110, #109, #108, #107, #106, #105, #104, #103, #102, #101, #100, #99, #98, #97, #96, #95, #94, #93, #92, #91, #90, #89, #88, #87, #86, #85, #84, #83, #82, #81, #80, #79, #78, #77, #76, #75, #74, #73, #72, #71, #70, #69, #68, #67, #66, #65, #64, #63, #62, #61, #60, #59, #58, #57, #56, #55, #54, #53, #52, #51, #50, #49, #48, #47, #46, #45, #44, #43, #42, #41, #40, #39, #38, #37, #36, #35, #34, #33, #32, #31, #30, #29, #28, #27, #26, #25, #24, #23, #22, #21, #20, #19, #18, #17, #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #11, #10, #9, #8, #7, #6, #5, #4, #3, #2, and #1.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: The Islamic State — al-Nabā’ Newsletter #204

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New audio message from al-Qā’idah in the Indian Subcontinent’s Ustāẓ Aḥmad Fārūq: “Lesson Series of Sūrat al-Anfāl, Lesson 1”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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To inquire about a translation for this audio message for a fee email: [email protected]

New issue of al-Qā’idah in the Indian Subcontinent’s magazine: “Nawaī Afghān Jihād Magazine – October 2019”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

Previous releases- 2019- September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2018- December issue. November issue. October issue. September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. February issue. January issue. 2017- December issue. November issue. October issue. September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2016- July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. 2015- November issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2014- December issue. November issue. October issue. September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. April/May issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2013- December issue. October/November issue. September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2012- December issue. November issue. October issue. September issue. August issue. July issue. June issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2011– December issue. November issue. September/October issue. August issue. June/July issue. May issue. April issue. March issue. February issue. January issue. 2010– December issue. November issue. October issue. September issue. August issue.

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Click the following link for a safe PDF copy: al-Qā’idah in the Indian Subcontinent — Nawaī Afghān Jihād Magazine – October 2019

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Source: Telegram

To inquire about a translation for this magazine issue for a fee email: [email protected]

New video message from al-Qā’idah in the Arabian Peninsula’s Shaykh Ibrāhīm al-Qūṣī (Khubayb al-Sūdānī): “To Our People In Somalia”

Posted on by Aaron Y. Zelin

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To inquire about a translation for this video message for a fee email: [email protected]